He had spent a career as an also-ran on Wall Street. But Paulson was convinced this was his chance to make his mark. He just wasn't sure how to do it. Colleagues at investment banks scoffed at him and investors dismissed him. Even pros skeptical about housing shied away from the complicated derivative investments that Paulson was just learning about. But Paulson and a handful of renegade investors such as Jeffrey Greene and Michael Burry began to bet heavily against risky mortgages and precarious financial companies.
Timing is everything, though. Initially, Paulson and the others lost tens of millions of dollars as real estate and stocks continued to soar. Rather than back down, however, Paulson redoubled his bets, putting his hedge fund and his reputation on the line. This book tells the story of one such refusenik, hedge fund manager John Paulson, who was not only sceptical about the health of the over-inflated US housing market, but bet against it — and won. The scale of Paulson's big bet, 'the greatest trade ever', as Greg Zuckerman describes it, was extraordinary.
Zuckerman also tells the stories of others who placed similar, much smaller trades, such as west coast property developer Jeffrey Greene, a friend of Paulson's before they fell out over his refusal to invest in his hedge fund. All these pessimistic investors were mavericks or outsiders, underlining how tough it was in those heady days to stand alone against the herd of charging bulls. Zuckerman, a writer for the Wall Street Journal , is excellent at explaining the financial engineering that left bank bosses with only the vaguest understanding of their own balance sheets, and the trail that leads from bafflingly complex securities such as 'collateralised debt obligations' to cash-strapped homeowners across the US.
He is less successful, though, in turning his tale into a compelling human story. Whenever he sketches in biographical details, they tend either to be clunky and implausible, or to remind us how dull financiers are.
One of Paulson's few distinguishing characteristics is apparently that, notwithstanding his immense wealth, he still travels by train. When, after leading a playboy lifestyle well into his 40s, he decided to settle down, he wrote a list of the characteristics a suitable wife would need.
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